中国纺织产业特征
纺织工业是中国传统支柱产业。迄今为止，依然是中国社会就业、出口创汇和农民致富不可替代的重要产业。其产业特征集中表现在：
（一）市场化程度高。从原料供应、要素投入对产品销售完全由市场配置；产业所有制结构非国有经济占80%以上，企业之间通过资本市场兼并、破产和联合；产业布局呈现资源（资金、技术、人才）向东部演化集中和转移的趋势；政府行政管理“淡出”，行业协会作用凸现。
（二）产业配套性强。从行业结构看，中国纺织工业拥有纺、织、染、成衣、家用、产业用等12个子行业，上中下游及装备企业应有尽有，产业链体系比较完整；从产业分布看，大型企业集中于重点城市，而中小型密集在县、镇、乡的产业集群（尤其东部沿海），基本上形成了相互协调配套的格局。
（三）内需拉动为主。按行业估算，2002年中国纺织工业全社会口径销售额大约18500亿元，其中国内销售值占72%，销售量占80%；中国国内人均年纤维消费量8公斤左右，世界平均水平约10公斤，随着中国国民经济高速增长和居民可支配收入提高，中国国内对纤维产品的消费需求还将较大增长，依然成为拉动纺织工业发展的主要动力。
（四）外贸关联度强。2002年中国纺织品服装出口617亿美元，占全国商品出口19%，占全国纺织工业销售总额的28%，而同年纺织品服装进口144亿美元，相关的纺织原料、纺织和染化料进口约110亿美元，进出口综合依存度约20%。在中国纺织的外商投资企业，出口占全行业36%，进口占67%。
（五）就业贡献度大。按行业估算，目前中国纺织工业吸纳的从业人口大约1800万，其中1200万为农家子女；每年为纺织工业提供约600万吨天然纤维原料的农业人口达到1亿。
后配额时代的影响与对策
中国纺织工业在后配额时代面临着可以预见的机遇与挑战。
——机 遇
（一）取消配额，有利于中国纺织工业在自由贸易条件下发挥在成本和质量方面的比较优势，尤其是在原先设限的欧美市场。
（二）中国加入WTO实施关税减让和服务业市场准入，有利于中国纺织工业吸引国外的资本、先进技术、先进管理等要素，加强与各国在纺织领域中的合作，推动中国纺织产业升级。
（三）在贸易自由化带动投资自由化背景下，有利于中国纺织企业实施“走出去”发展战略，如到北美、中南美、非洲、中东、欧洲以及周边国家和地区投资办厂，为当地增加就业和税收，也有利于中国纺织企业开辟多元化市场。
（四）在WTO多边贸易体制下确立与别国之间的平等地位，有利于在共同遵循的“游戏规则”下，平等对话、合作交流、公平竞争，维护正当权益，共同建立与维护世界纺织品服装贸易秩序。
——挑 战
（一）世界范围内纺织服装生产过剩，行业利润空间很小，在配额限制取消和遭遇世界经济增长乏力时，过度竞争很难避免。
（二）纺织品服装作为敏感性产品在国与国之间转移，不可能一帆风顺且容易引起贸易摩擦，甚至是政治矛盾。中国作为世界主要的纺织出口国，在后配额时代要准备接受这类考验。
（三）除化纤生产技术和服装骨干企业技术装备接近国际先进水平以外，中国纺织工业在纺纱、织造、针织、印染等传统加工领域，整体装备水平与国际先进水平有较大差距。如棉纺织行业，发达国家自动络筒机占有率达90-100%，无梭织机达80-90%，我国仅占25%和20%。
（四）中国纺织产品总体创新能力不强，国内企业的新产品比重约在5%左右，研发投入占销售收入比例一般占1.5%。化纤产品差别化率不足20%，难以适应开发新产品的需要。
面对后配额时代的机遇与挑战，中国纺织工业可以考虑寻找下列两条基本的对策思路：
第一，坚定不移地把提高产业竞争力放在十分突出的位置。后配额时代意味着世界纺织工业重新与WTO一体化贸易体制并轨，尽管会引发新贸易保护主义抬头，但全球纺织品贸易自由化已是大势所趋，依靠竞争实力是各国纺织产业立足国内外市场的根本。提高中国纺织产业竞争力不是走低水平能力和数量扩张的线路，而是要把各种有效资源投放到先进的技术装备、工艺、人才、管理、设计、研发和品牌上来，以建设先进生产力提高中国纺织产业的竞争力。
第二，遵循多赢原则，加强与各国同行及相关产业之间合作。在贸易自由化条件下，世界纺织工业是你中有我，我中有你，相互依存，优势互补。中国纺织工业的加工优势和劳动力资源，与国际先进国家的资本、技术、管理、营销、品牌优势合作，一定能够为世界纺织工业发展创造美好前景。开放的中国国内市场也是中外纺织业合作的良好场所。中国纺织行业性组织将通过开展全面的产业经济外交，加强与各国同业组织之间的沟通与交流，为企业界的国际合作架起坚固的桥梁。
英文：
China’s Textile Industry in Post-quota Times
Sun Huaibing
Deputy Director of The Industry Consulting Dept. of CNTIC
What would it be after China’s textile industry enters post-quota times? This is a question that attracts global attention. The advent of post-quota time suggests a realignment of the world textile industry with free trade system. As a large textile country on earth, China has the responsibility to analyze influence and trends of post-quota times in combination with the characteristics of its own textile industry and to further explore the countermeasures.
Characteristics of China’s Textile Industry
The textile industry, as a traditional backbone industry, has remained an important and irreplaceable industry for employment, earning foreign exchanges from exports, and making peasants rich in China. Characteristics of the industry concentrate in the following:
(I) High Marketing Level: Supply of raw materials, investment of essential elements, and sale of products are all up to market deployment. Non-state-owned economy accounts for 80% of the proprietorship structure. Incorporation, bankruptcy, and combination of enterprises are conducted via market; the industry layout demonstrates a trend for resources (capital, technology, and talents) to concentrate in and transfer to the east; government’s administration is “fading out” while the role of industrial associations is standing out.
(II) Products form a complete set. From the perspective of industrial structure, with 12 sub-industries of spinning, weaving, dyeing, garment-manufacturing, home textiles, and industrial textiles, China’s textile industry has enterprises at its upper, middle, and lower reaches as well as textile machinery enterprises, boasting a rather complete industry chain; From the perspective of industrial distribution, large enterprises centralize in important cities while medium and small-scale ones concentrate in industrial aggregation of counties and townships (esp. in east costal areas), being a complete set in coordination with each other.
(III) Domestic demands constitute the major pulling force. Estimated in terms of industry, China’s textile industry realized in 2002 a total sale value of 1850 billion yuan, 72% being domestic sale value, and 80% being domestic sale amount. China’s domestic fiber consumption per head each year is around 8kg, standing in contrast to 10kg of the world average level. With rapid growth of China’s national economy and increase of residents’ disposable income, there will still be a positive growth of China’s domestic demands for fiber products, which will become the major force to pull development of the textile industry.
(IV) There has been a high degree of relativity to foreign trade. Exports of China’s textile products and garments in 2002 amounted to 61.7 billion US$, accounting for 19% of the total commodity exports of the whole country, and 28% of the total sale value of China’s textile industry. Meanwhile, imports of textile products and garments reached 14.4 billion US$, and imports of related textile raw materials, machineries, and dyestuffs and chemicals totaled US$ 11 billion. In this way, the synthesized dependence degree of imports and exports was about 20%. As for the enterprises with foreign investment in China’s textile industry, they contributed 36% exports and 67% imports of the whole industry.
(V) Great contribution to employment: from the point of view of industry, China’s textile industry currently employs more than 18 million people, of which 12 million are from the countryside. Rural population providing around 6 million tons of natural fibers for the textile industry reaches 100 million annually.
Influences and countermeasures of Post-quota times
Both opportunities and challenges can be expected of China’s textile industry in post-quota times.
----Opportunities
(I) The cancellation of quota will be favorable for China’s textile industry to exert its comparative advantages with regard to cost and quality, especially in the European and North American market which used to place quota restraints.
(II) Reduction of customs duties and admittance to service market after China’s entry into WTO, are favorable for its textile industry to attract foreign capital, advanced technologies, and sophisticated management, to reinforce cooperation in the field of textile industry, and to promote the upgrade of China’s textile industry.
(III) Against the background of free investment driven by free trade, it will be beneficial for China’s textile industry to implement the development strategy of “going out”, for example, to invest and run factories in North America, Central and South America, Africa, Middle East, Europe, and neighboring countries and regions, which will create local jobs and revenue and also help China’s textile enterprises cultivate various markets.
(IV) The equal status to other countries established by WTO multi-lateral trade system will be favorable for China’s textile industry to perform equal dialogue, cooperation and exchange, impartial competition, and protection of just rights, in the hope of establishing and maintaining order of the world textile and garment trade.
------Challenges
(I) Owing to over-production of textile and garments and little room for the industry’s profits, over-competition will be inevitable upon the abolishment of quota restraints and the occurrence of slackened world economy.
(II) When textile and garments, as very sensitive products, are transferred from one country to another, it will be impossible to be smooth. Likely, it will lead to trade friction and sometimes even political contradictions. China, a major exporter of textile products in the world, should be ready to encounter such kind of tests in post-quota times.
(III) Except that manufacture technologies of chemical fibers and technological equipments of key garment manufacturers have reached an international advanced level, China’s textile industry still lags rather behind the international advanced level in the traditional processing fields such as spinning, weaving, knitting, and dyeing & printing, in terms of whole set of equipment level. Just take the cotton textile industry as an example, the possessing rate of automatic winder reaches 90-100% and that of non-shuttle loom 80-90% in developed countries, which is a sharp contrast to 25% and 20% of China.
(IV) Not very strong creative ability of China’s textile industry. New products being only 5% out of its total, R&D investment being 1.5% of its sales income, and less than 20% differentiation rate of its chemical fiber products makes it hard to meet the demands to develop new products.
Facing both opportunities and challenges of post-quota times, China’s textile industry may seek for countermeasures following the line of thoughts as follows:
Firstly, adhere to the practice of giving priority to enhancing industrial competitiveness. Post-quota times predicts realignment of world textile industry and integrated trade system of WTO. This may give rise to neo-protectionism, but free trade has been the trend of times and reliance on competitive power has been the foundation on which every country bases themselves in the market. To promote competitiveness of China’s textile industry does not signify to follow the path of low level and quantitive expansion. Instead, it means that effective resources should be put into advanced technological equipments, techniques, talents, management, design, R&D, and brands so as to construct advanced productivity and enhance competitiveness of China’s textile industry.
Secondly, stick to the principle of multi-win and reinforce cooperation between country and country and between industry and industry. Under the condition of free trade, world textile industries are interdependent and complementary. Advantages of processing and labor force resources of China’s textile industry, in cooperation with internationally advanced countries in terms of capital, technology, management, marketing, and brand, will certainly create a beautiful prospect for the development of the world textile industry. China’s opening domestic market is also a good place where textile enterprises both from home and abroad can collaborate. Industrial associations of China’s textile industry will conduct comprehensive industrial economic diplomatism, strengthen communication and exchanges between related organizations of every country, and build a solid bridge for industrial international cooperation.